Industry Intelligence Insights November 2025

Welcome to Industry Intelligence Insights, your monthly guide to the trends and data shaping the global electronics manufacturing landscape. I’m Thiago Guimarães, Director of Industry Intelligence at the Global Electronics Association, and I’m pleased to share this November edition.

Global manufacturing is showing signs of stabilization, but it’s far from uniform. In this issue, Chief Economist Dr. Shawn DuBravac explores a “patchwork recovery,” where Europe edges toward growth, Asia diversifies its momentum, and U.S. factories tread cautiously amid data disruptions.

You’ll also find the latest Book-to-Bill results, revealing continued resilience in North America’s PCB and EMS markets, as well as new insights from our Global Sentiment Survey and policy research on U.S.–Mexico manufacturing integration. Finally, don’t miss perspectives from our new European Director of Industry Intelligence, Christoph Solka.

Read on for a data-rich view of how the electronics sector is adapting to an uncertain, but opportunity-filled, global landscape. 

Thiago Guimarães 
Director of Industry Intelligence, Global Electronics Association

Market Analysis from Global Electronics Chief Economist Shawn DuBravac

Global manufacturing data released in the last month suggests a patchwork recovery taking shape. While signs of stabilization are emerging in parts of Europe and Asia, momentum remains fragile in the United States, where data gaps from the government shutdown have clouded the near-term outlook. Across major economies, the story is one of divergence: domestic demand is sustaining production in South and Southeast Asia, Europe is inching toward recovery, and China’s industrial base appears to be stabilizing, even as U.S. factories remain cautious. 

The labor market cooled further in August, with nonfarm payrolls adding just 22,000 jobs and the unemployment rate climbing to 4.3%. Manufacturing was particularly weak, shedding 12,000 jobs during the month. Survey data confirmed the slowdown, with the S&P Global flash Manufacturing PMI easing to 52 in September from 53 in August. Still, some resilience remains: durable goods orders surged 2.9% in August, though shipments dipped 0.2%, suggesting uneven demand momentum.

Recent U.S. manufacturing data paints a split picture, one of gradual stabilization beneath the surface but little clear momentum heading into year-end. The two headline national surveys diverged once again. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in October, down from 49.1 in September, signaling contraction. New orders and employment components remained soft, though the prices index moved into expansion, a sign that input costs are on the rise. By contrast, the S&P Global (formerly IHS Markit) U.S. Manufacturing PMI held at a healthier 52.5, pointing to modest growth and hinting that smaller, more export-oriented firms may be faring somewhat better. The split between the ISM and S&P Global measures underscores an uneven manufacturing landscape, where demand and production remain under pressure even as pricing power and output in select industries improve.

At the regional level, the signals were equally mixed. The Chicago PMI remained firmly in contraction at 43.8, consistent with sluggish Midwest factory activity. The Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook index dropped to –12.8, indicating continued weakness. The Richmond Fed composite index came in at –4 and the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook registered –5.0, both showing modest declines. In contrast, the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing index rebounded to 10.7, marking expansion, and the Kansas City Fed’s Tenth District index rose to 6, suggesting stabilization across parts of the Plains region. Together, the regional surveys imply that the industrial economy remains uneven but not deteriorating, with manufacturing conditions varying sharply by geography and industry.

Measures of consumer demand remain subdued: October consumer confidence (94.6) and final University of Michigan sentiment (53.6) both showed limited improvement, reflecting cautious household spending on durable goods.

Housing-related indicators, which feed directly into materials and equipment demand, are showing tentative stabilization. September existing home sales rose 1.5% month-over-month, and October housing starts, due November 19, will reveal whether construction activity is regaining traction. Broader growth indicators remain steady, with third-quarter GDP expanding modestly and inflation gradually aligning with the Federal Reserve’s target.

The backdrop to these releases is complicated by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed or disrupted several major economic reports. Many data series from the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis have not been updated on schedule, including durable goods, retail sales, and portions of trade and construction spending. This lack of visibility creates additional uncertainty gauging trends in demand, pricing, and inventories. The data gap also makes it harder to confirm whether the manufacturing sector’s apparent stabilization reflects real improvement or simply missing information.  Factories appear to be operating in a holding pattern, waiting for clearer signals from consumer spending, input costs, and inventory restocking before committing to a stronger production rebound.

Europe’s October data offered a cautiously improved picture for manufacturing, with signs of stabilization emerging after months of weakness. The Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI for October came in right at 50, marking a return to neutral territory after persistent contraction earlier in the year. Output edged higher while new orders remained flat and employment continued to decline, suggesting that recovery is fragile but underway. The country-level breakdown showed clear divergence: Spain (52.1) and Greece (53.5) led with solid expansions, the Netherlands (51.8) and Ireland (50.9) maintained modest growth, while Germany (49.6) and France (48.8) stayed in mild contraction. Germany’s flash composite PMI for October confirmed that overall growth was driven mainly by services, even as manufacturing lagged slightly below the 50 mark.

Inflation and production data from earlier months continued to highlight the subdued industrial backdrop. The euro area’s August producer price index fell 0.3% month-on-month and 0.6% year-on-year, pointing to easing cost pressures for manufacturers but also weak pricing power. Industrial production for August, released in mid-October, remained soft, suggesting that the sector entered September with limited momentum. Still, broader macro indicators provided modest reassurance. Preliminary GDP for the third quarter rose 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, and headline inflation in October slowed to 2.1% year-on-year, with core inflation steady near 2.4%. Unemployment across the euro area also held at a historically low 6.3%, indicating that labor markets remain resilient despite sluggish factory activity.

Sentiment data echoed the theme of cautious optimism. The European Commission’s October surveys showed the Economic Sentiment Indicator climbing to 96.8 across the euro area, with improving employment expectations. In Germany, the ifo business climate index rose to 88.4 in October and the ZEW investor sentiment index jumped to 39.3, reflecting better expectations for the months ahead even as current conditions remain subdued. The European Central Bank held rates steady at 2% in its October 30 meeting and kept its forward guidance unchanged, signaling confidence that inflation is continuing to normalize without derailing growth.

In the United Kingdom, manufacturing activity offered one of the brighter notes. The October manufacturing PMI hit a one-year high as output returned to growth, helped by the restart of Jaguar Land Rover production and improved supply conditions. European manufacturing readings suggest that while the sector remains uneven across countries, the combination of easing inflation, firmer sentiment, and steady employment is helping the region move closer to a fragile but tangible industrial recovery.

China’s manufacturing sector sent a mixed but increasingly nuanced message in the last month. The latest official manufacturing PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics slipped to 49.0, down from 49.8 in September, signaling renewed contraction. Beneath the headline, production and new orders both edged lower, while new export orders dropped sharply to 45.9, underscoring how weaker global demand and tariff uncertainty continue to weigh on factory activity. Supplier delivery times held steady at 50.0, suggesting little immediate pressure on supply chains.

In contrast, the private RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI (S&P Global) painted a somewhat brighter picture. It held in expansion territory at 50.6, though that was down from 51.2 a month earlier. Employment in smaller firms ticked up slightly, even as new export orders softened, suggesting domestic conditions might be stable even while external headwinds persist.

Hard activity data released in the last month reinforces the sense of tentative recovery beneath the surface. Manufacturing value-added rose 7.3% year-over-year, outpacing the 6.5% gain in total industrial production. High-tech manufacturing led the way, climbing 10.3% from a year earlier, while the export delivery value increased 3.8%, signaling that some sectors continue to find traction abroad despite global uncertainty. Price indicators pointed to easing deflationary pressure, with the Producer Price Index down 2.3% year-over-year but unchanged month-to-month, an early sign that factory margins may be stabilizing after months of being squeezed.

Profitability data added to that more constructive tone. Industrial profits rose 3.2% year-to-date and an even stronger 9.9% within manufacturing. September alone saw a 21.6% surge in profits compared with a year earlier, the best monthly result in nearly two years, driven by gains across several manufacturing subsectors. Fixed-asset investment in manufacturing increased 4% in the first nine months of the year, buoyed by robust spending on equipment and instruments, which jumped 14%, and especially strong investment in autos and general-purpose machinery.

External demand provided another layer of support. September’s trade figures showed exports rising 8.3% in U.S. dollar terms. Meanwhile, capacity utilization in manufacturing remained relatively stable at 74.8%, highlighting persistent slack but no worsening in overcapacity. In a key upstream segment, the steel industry PMI improved to 49.2 from 47.7, and new export orders hit a 20-month high of 54.3, pointing to firmer momentum in heavy industry.

Taken together, the October data portray a manufacturing sector still feeling the weight of global uncertainty but showing early signs of underlying stabilization. Output and profits are improving, deflationary pressures are easing, and investment is holding steady, suggesting that while growth remains uneven, China’s industrial base is gradually regaining its footing after a prolonged period of strain.

Across Asia, October’s manufacturing and inflation data reveal a region moving at multiple speeds, with stronger domestic demand in Southeast Asia offsetting a softer backdrop in the major North Asian economies. Japan’s manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction at 48.2, signaling ongoing weakness in factory sentiment. Yet industrial production in September surprised to the upside, rising 2.2% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, driven by autos and electronic components. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry described conditions as “fluctuating indecisively,” reflecting the uneven recovery. Retail sales grew just 0.5% from a year earlier, underscoring tepid consumer spending, while Tokyo’s October CPI came in at 2.8%, serving as an early indicator that inflation remains above target but stable. South Korea’s picture was similar: its October manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction at 49.4, even as exports jumped 3.6% year-over-year, led by a 25% surge in semiconductors and a dramatic 131% increase in ship deliveries. Industrial production in September climbed 12.1% in manufacturing and 6.7% overall, pointing to solid underlying momentum. Inflation accelerated modestly to 2.4%, slightly higher than expected but still manageable.

Elsewhere in North Asia, Taiwan’s manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 47.7, indicating that contraction is easing. The island’s September industrial production surged 16.9% year-over-year, confirming that the technology rebound remains a key growth engine. Inflation data for October are pending, though price pressures remain contained. In South and Southeast Asia, momentum was notably stronger. India’s manufacturing PMI rose to 59.2, among the highest globally, supported by robust domestic demand. The Reserve Bank of India kept its policy rate at 5.50% in its October meeting and raised its FY26 GDP forecast to 6.8% while projecting inflation to moderate to 2.6%. Industrial production was up 4% in August, with September’s report due mid-November, and inflation remains at multi-year lows. In Singapore, October’s manufacturing PMI held at 50.0, with the electronics index slightly stronger at 50.4. Industrial production surged 16.1% year-over-year and 26.3% month-over-month, boosted by biomedical manufacturing, while inflation remained subdued at 0.7% headline and 0.4% core.

Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines provided the brightest spots. Thailand’s PMI jumped to 56.6, its fastest pace in nearly two years, as output rebounded and new orders strengthened. Vietnam’s PMI rose into the 54–55 range, signaling strong expansion and improved business sentiment, supported by rising exports and a projected annual trade turnover above $900 billion. Indonesia’s PMI registered 51.2, marking its third straight month of expansion, reflecting resilient domestic demand. The Philippines returned to growth as well, with its PMI at 50.1. Across the region, inflation dynamics were diverse: Korea saw a mild re-acceleration, Japan’s Tokyo core remained near 3%, and Thailand continued to post deflation at –0.7% year-over-year.

Taken together, the global picture is one of tentative balance rather than synchronized strength. Manufacturing activity is no longer uniformly contracting, but neither is it expanding with conviction. Divergent regional trends, including North Asia’s subdued output, Europe’s early stabilization, and Southeast Asia’s domestic-led growth, highlight how uneven the industrial landscape has become. Until global demand strengthens and data disruptions clear, the manufacturing recovery will likely remain fragile, characterized more by resilience and adjustment than acceleration. 
 

Book to Bill

PCB: North American PCB Industry Posts Double-Digit Year-to-Date Gains in Shipments and Bookings 

North American PCB production remained strong in September, with year-to-date shipments up 10.5% and bookings up 13.1% compared to last year. The book-to-bill ratio held at 0.92 as manufacturers cleared backlogs and met sustained demand from AI-driven data center investments, signaling steady momentum heading into Q4. 

EMS: EMS Market Steadies in September, Setting Stage for Continued Growth 

North America’s EMS sector stabilized in September, with shipments edging up 1.1% month over month and the book-to-bill ratio holding strong at 1.31. Year-to-date bookings rose 0.7%, signaling healthy, sustained demand as production and supply conditions continue to normalize heading into Q4.

Global Sentiment

The Current Sentiment of the Global Electronics Manufacturing Supply Chain

The Global Electronics Association’s October 2025 survey reveals a sector navigating mixed signals as it enters the final quarter of the year. 

Recent Reports

Powering the U.S. Economy: The Economic Reach of Electronics Manufacturing 

Even as global growth cools and trade patterns shift, this new analysis from the Global Electronics Association shows that U.S. electronics manufacturing remains one of the most powerful drivers of economic resilience. 

Policy Brief — From Risk to Resilience: Why Mexico Matters to U.S. Manufacturing 

The United States and Mexico share one of the world’s most productive and strategically aligned manufacturing partnerships. This report explores how deeply integrated electronics supply chains between the two nations drive U.S. industrial strength, job growth, and national security.  

Articles 

How Insight Becomes Impact by Chris Mitchell and Christoph Solka

Christoph Solka, the Global Electronics Association’s new Director of Industry Intelligence in Europe, is bringing data to life by connecting research with real-world outcomes. Through market analysis, strategic insight, and engagement across Europe, he’s helping manufacturers benchmark performance, adapt to disruptions, and seize new opportunities in a rapidly evolving industry.  

Cut to the Chase by Dr. Shawn DuBravac

As the Fed begins easing interest rates, manufacturers are entering a new phase of normalization that will demand tighter financial discipline, smarter capital allocation, and careful risk management. DuBravac outlines ten strategies, from recalibrating hurdle rates to hedging rate risk, to help firms navigate higher-for-longer conditions and position for growth in 2026. 
 

Upcoming Events:

• November 18–21, 2025 — Productronica, Munich, Germany: Visit the Global Electronics Association at Stand A1.321, where IPC International Inc. (IPC) will be presenting in forums and hosting its annual hand-soldering competition, and Christoph Solka will deliver industry insight at its booth.
• December 5, 2025 — EMS & Beyond 2025, Tallinn, Estonia: The Global Electronics Association’s Christoph Solka and Anastasia Ederer will deliver key presentations on “The Difficult Developments in the EMS Industry in Europe” and “The EMS Industry in the Baltic States,” offering data-driven insight into regional market dynamics and emerging challenges.
• March 16–19, 2026 — APEX EXPO, Anaheim, California: The Global Electronics Association’s flagship event will feature keynote addresses from IBM Quantum’s David Lokken-Toyli, futurist Zack Kass, and Association President & CEO John W. Mitchell, offering bold insights on quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and the future of global electronics innovation. Register HERE