Industry Intelligence Insights October 2025

Welcome to Industry Intelligence Insights, your monthly guide to the trends shaping global electronics manufacturing. I’m Thiago Guimarães, Director of Industry Intelligence at the Global Electronics Association.

This month’s market analysis from Chief Economist Shawn DuBravac, unpacks new rate cuts and shifting monetary paths in Europe and Asia.

We also highlight new Book-to-Bill data showing steady EMS demand and mixed PCB activity, and the latest Global Sentiment Report, where firms report persistent cost pressures but improving productivity and utilization ahead.

Plus, explore two new reports: The Software Ecosystem Powering Electronics Manufacturing and The New Transatlantic Trade Agreement, which examine how technology and trade are reshaping competitiveness across regions.

Read on for the insights driving the industry forward.

Thiago Guimarães 
Director of Industry Intelligence, Global Electronics Association

Market Analysis from Global Electronics Chief Economist Shawn DuBravac

The Fed’s long-anticipated rate cut finally arrived. Policymakers trimmed rates by 25 basis points in September, taking the federal funds range to 4.00% to 4.25%. Chair Jerome Powell said risks look more balanced and more cuts are likely in the months ahead. The aim is to give growth a nudge while keeping inflation expectations anchored. But that inflation fight is not over. August CPI ran at 2.9% year over year, with core at 3.1%. Both ticked up from July, a reminder that getting all the way back to 2% will take time.

The labor market cooled further in August, with nonfarm payrolls adding just 22,000 jobs and the unemployment rate climbing to 4.3%. Manufacturing was particularly weak, shedding 12,000 jobs during the month. Survey data confirmed the slowdown, with the S&P Global flash Manufacturing PMI easing to 52 in September from 53 in August. Still, some resilience remains: durable goods orders surged 2.9% in August, though shipments dipped 0.2%, suggesting uneven demand momentum.

Across the Atlantic, the European Central Ban kept rates unchanged in September, leaving the deposit rate at 2% and the main refi at 2.15%. With euro area inflation at 2.1% in August, officials sounded comfortable but noncommittal about what comes next.
Manufacturing conditions showed renewed weakness in Europe as the HCOB flash Manufacturing PMI slipped back below the 50 mark in September to 49.5, signaling contraction. Production data painted a more nuanced picture. Industrial output in July rose 0.3% month-over-month, driven by durable goods.

China’s manufacturing sector continued to show divergent signals. The official NBS manufacturing PMI came in at 49.8 in September, a sixth straight contraction but slightly better than August. The private Caixin gauge told a different story, rising to 51.2, its quickest pace since March. The PBOC left loan prime rates unchanged in September, while Beijing mapped out roughly ¥500 billion in targeted financing to speed up investment projects. One clear positive was profits. Industrial earnings jumped 20.4% year over year in August, lifting year-to-date profits to a small gain after earlier declines.

Around the rest of Asia, the Asian Development Bank nudged its 2025 growth outlook for developing economies down to 4.8%, citing tariffs and trade uncertainty. Japan struggled, with August industrial output down 1.2% and the au Jibun Manufacturing PMI slipping to 48.4 in September. The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.5% and kept a close eye on wages and prices. India remained the regional standout. GDP grew 7.8% year over year in the April to June quarter, and manufacturing stayed strong even as the HSBC/S&P Global PMI eased to a still-hearty 58.5 in September.
 

Book to Bill

PCB: North American PCB Industry Sales Up 12.8 Percent in August

The Global Electronics Association has announced the August 2025 findings from its North American Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Statistical Program. The book-to-bill ratio stands at 0.98.

EMS: North American EMS Industry Shipments Down 1.4 Percent in August

The Global Electronics Association has announced the August 2025 findings from its North American Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) Statistical Program. The book-to-bill ratio stands at 1.26.

Global Sentiment

The Current Sentiment of the Global Electronics Manufacturing Supply Chain September 2025

According to the September 2025 Global Sentiment Report, firms report rising material and labor costs that are straining margins and slowing hiring, even as demand and order flow remain solid. Over the next six months, executives expect cost pressures to persist but anticipate gradual improvement in activity, utilization, and margins as pricing resets and productivity gains take hold.

Recent Reports

The Software Ecosystem Powering Electronics Manufacturing

In November 2024, the Global Electronics Association surveyed EMS and OEM companies to gain a deeper understanding of the software tools that shape their operations. The findings reveal a complex landscape: there is no one-size-fits-all approach, with priorities varying by tool type and function.

The New Transatlantic Trade Agreement

The future of Europe’s electronics industry is being reshaped by a single deal: the new transatlantic tariff agreement. Starting August 1, 2025, most European electronics exports to the U.S. will face a unified 15% tariff, adding an estimated €9.8 billion in annual duties. This new paper from the Global Electronics Association examines how the agreement alters competitiveness,  raising costs for U.S. importers and consumers, disadvantaging European firms, and tilting the field toward competitors in Mexico and Asia.
 

Upcoming Events:

• October 22-24, 2025 – Evertiq Expo Warsaw 2025 – Christoph Solka will present on the European EMS industry