The Numbers Don't Lie: Reading the Global EMS Data for 2025

There is a particular kind of clarity that comes from sitting down with the person who compiled the data. Not the press release version, not the management summary, but the actual numbers: the ones that show which companies closed, which markets contracted hardest, and where, against the odds, something is quietly growing

I spoke recently with Christoph Solka, Director of Industry Intelligence at the Global Electronics Association, following the release of two significant datasets: the Annual Survey of the European EMS Industry 2026, covering 397 companies and representing nearly 31% of total European EMS production, and the Global EMS Industry Report 2025, produced via the Association's acquisition of the New Venture Research programme. Together they tell a story of an industry in transition, growing in some places, contracting sharply in others, and everywhere being reshaped by forces that go well beyond the normal business cycle. 

The global picture looks encouraging on the surface. The worldwide EMS market grew 3.2% in 2024, reaching approximately $658 billion, driven primarily by AI infrastructure demand. But Solka was quick to add context. "The 3.2% refers to 2024. In 2025, the global increase was even bigger. So the contrast between global and Europe is actually larger than it appears." 

Europe tells a harder story. Overall European EMS revenues fell 2.9% in 2025. Eleven French companies filed for insolvency. Job losses across the full industry potentially approached 11,000. The question of whether Europe is simply lagging a global recovery, or facing something more structural, is one the data raises without fully resolving. Solka's view: "There is a clear split in the market between AI-driven and non-AI, and you can see that split both globally and within Europe itself." 

Within Europe, the East-West divide is the defining story. Germany fell 7.0%, following a 9.7% decline the year before. Austria fell 15.2%. France recorded -13.5%. Against that, the Baltic States grew 12.0%, the Balkans 7.2%, the Nordics 9.1%, Poland 3.1%. As Solka put it: "It is not a homogeneous but a heterogeneous picture. The market was declining overall, but not everybody is the same. It depends where you are, which region, what is driving you." 

The defence sector is the clearest bright spot, particularly for Nordic companies that have spent years building capability and relationships in aerospace and defence. But the opportunity is concentrated. Not every company pivoting toward defence will find the business it is looking for. 

The finding that surprised me most, however, is the profitability data. Despite falling revenues across much of Europe, 42% of surveyed companies improved their pre-tax margins in 2025. Even among companies whose revenues declined, 43% improved margins. I asked Solka directly: resilience or painful cost cutting? 

"Genuine resilience and cost reductions do not have to be contradictions," he said. "Companies that have tight control over costs are resilient as a result." The workforce numbers tell the harder side of that story: 3,445 jobs eliminated, 94% in Western Europe. "Those are real people," Solka said quietly. "It's easy to discuss percentages. It's important to remember what they represent." 

The outlook for 2026 is cautious. Automotive remains a drag. Industrial shows tentative improvement. A broad-based Western European recovery is not yet in sight. But an industry that has absorbed this much pressure without breaking, that has protected margins and in many cases used the downturn to reposition, is one that is building the foundation for what comes next. 

The numbers don't lie. And right now, they are telling a story of an industry that is tougher, leaner, and more self-aware than it was when this downturn began. 

Philip Stoten is a journalist, speaker and host specialising in the global electronics manufacturing services industry. He hosts the EMS@C-Level, EMS & The Economist, and MADE IN EUROPE podcasts.