Political Uncertainties Raise Doubts on Both Sides of Atlantic
Key Summary
• Political uncertainty in the U.S. and Europe is limiting opportunities for major policy action
• The U.S. government is emerging from a prolonged shutdown, with Congress shifting focus to budgets, oversight, and defense legislation
• A major U.S. infrastructure bill is possible but unlikely to be enacted
• Europe faces fragmentation ahead of EU elections and ongoing Brexit instability
• IPC is prioritizing long-term engagement and monitoring key policy developments across both regions
On both sides of the Atlantic, the political waters are turbulent, creating uncertainties about the opportunities for meaningful policy actions. In Washington, D.C., things are getting back to “normal” after a five-week government shutdown that was prompted by President’s Trump demand for a US-Mexico border wall. To end that standoff, the White House and Congress agreed to reopen the government for three weeks – until February 15 – while negotiators work out issues related to border security. Assuming a compromise can be reached on border security – which is not certain – Congress will devote the next several months to oversight hearings, the FY 2020 budget, the defense authorization bill and annual appropriations bills. Congress could advance an infrastructure bill, but enactment of a bill remains unlikely. In Europe, 2019 will be a crucial year for EU policy making. The upcoming EU elections will take place without the UK and are expected to lead to a more fragmented European Parliament. New political alliances will affect the leadership of the next European Commission and the policy agenda of the next five years. Speaking of the UK, the deadline for its exit from the EU is now less than 60 days away, with no agreed-upon deal to cover the many details. Now the EU and its Member States are beginning to implement emergency preparedness plans to address what could become a major disruption in the event of a no-deal exit. Given the near-term uncertainties, we’re focusing on long-term initiatives, relationship building, and capacity building. As always, we will be monitoring the ongoing action on our key policy issues and advocating for your interests. Please contact Chris Mitchell if you have any questions or suggestions.
The recent government shutdown and ongoing border security disputes have slowed legislative momentum. Congress will focus on budgets, oversight, and defense bills, leaving limited room for major new initiatives such as infrastructure legislation.
EU elections are expected to produce a more fragmented Parliament, leading to shifting alliances and uncertainty in forming the next European Commission. These political changes will influence the EU policy agenda for years ahead.
With the UK set to leave the EU and no final deal secured, both sides are preparing contingency plans. A no-deal exit could disrupt trade, regulatory systems, and supply chains, making planning more difficult for manufacturers.
Companies should anticipate slower policy movement, potential regulatory disruptions, and shifting timelines. Staying engaged with IPC and maintaining awareness of regional political developments will help navigate emerging risks.