North American EMS Market Opens 2026 on Soft Note as Momentum Cools

January 2026 came in soft on both sides of the ledger. Shipments were essentially flat year-over-year (+0.1%) and fell sharply from December. Bookings were down 3.3% year-over-year and dropped 24.8% from a strong December close. 

January's results point to a building backlog, as shipments trailed December's bookings by a notable margin. The three-month book-to-bill held steady at 1.25, indicating the underlying trend remains in expansion territory, but the monthly read warrants watching. The three-month moving averages for both shipments (-3.7%) and bookings (-3.5%) are running negative, pointing to a softening in momentum. 

“January's results reflect a market catching its breath after a strong close to 2025. Fundamentals remain intact, but the demand signal is muted,” said Dr. Shawn DuBravac, Global Electronics Association’s chief economist. “Even with shipments slightly below last year’s pace, the firming demand environment suggests a sector that is moving into better balance.” 

Detailed Data Available 

Companies that participate in the Global Electronics Association’s North American EMS Statistical Program have access to detailed findings on EMS sales growth by type of production and company size tier, order growth and backlogs by company size tier, vertical market growth, the EMS book-to-bill ratio, 3-month and 12-month sales outlooks, and other timely data. 

Interpreting the Data 

The book-to-bill ratios are calculated by dividing the value of orders booked over the past three months by the value of sales billed during the same period from companies in the Global Electronics Association’s survey sample. A ratio of more than 1.00 suggests that current demand is ahead of supply, which is a positive indicator for sales growth over the next three to 12 months. A ratio of less than 1.00 indicates the reverse. 

Year-on-year and year-to-date growth rates provide the most meaningful view of industry growth. Month-to-month comparisons should be made with caution as they reflect seasonal effects and short-term volatility. Because bookings tend to be more volatile than shipments, changes in the book-to-bill ratios from month to month might not be significant unless a trend of more than three consecutive months is apparent. It is also important to consider changes in both bookings and shipments to understand what is driving changes in the book-to-bill ratio. 

The Global Electronics Association’s monthly EMS industry statistics are based on data provided by a representative sample of assembly equipment manufacturers selling in the USA and Canada. The Association publishes the EMS book-to-bill ratio by the end of each month.