COVID-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, soaring global inflation rates and recession fears were major contributors to the cloud of uncertainty in 2022 and also to slower global economic growth, per IPC’s December Economic Outlook report.

“Many believe a recession is a foregone conclusion in 2023,” said Shawn DuBravac, IPC’s chief economist. “I expect about a third of the world economy will likely be in recession in 2023. Global economic growth has already fallen, slipping from six percent in 2021 to about 3.2 percent in 2022. Global growth is expected to slow further in 2023, clocking in at less than two percent,” DuBravac added.

          Additional data in report show:

• Global inflation rose from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 and should fall to around 6.5 percent in 2023 and four percent in 2024.
•  U.S. economic activity is expected to increase just 0.3 percent in 2023.
• U.S. industrial production fell 0.2 percent in November, the second straight month of decline. Despite the weak November results, production of consumer goods was up 1.8 percent in the past year and production of business equipment was up 5.7 percent.
• In Europe, electronics manufacturing output fell in October after two months of growth. Output decreased 2 percent (month-on-month), but production remains high. Output is up 4.4 percent over the last year.

View full report. For more information on IPC’s industry intelligence program including new reports, visit: www.ipc.org/advocacy/industry-intelligence.

Per IPC’s December Global Sentiment of the Electronics Supply Chain Report, over the next six months, manufacturers expect to see continued increase in both labor and material costs. Ease of recruitment and profit margins are likely to remain challenging.

Among other data, survey results show:

• Demand remains solid, but closes the year on a lighter note: The Orders Index began the year at 123, strongly in expansionary territory, but closes the year at 107. This is solidly in expansionary territory but down for a second consecutive month and the lowest reading this year.
•  Supply chain constraints have improved notably since the start of the year: The Inventories Available to Customers (IAC) Index has improved throughout the year. It began the year in contractionary territory but ends the year at 105 suggesting available inventories are growing.
• Costs remain elevated: The Materials Costs Index dropped one-point last month, to an all-time low, but the index remains high, suggesting cost pressures continue.

For the report, IPC surveyed hundreds of companies from around the world, including a wide range of company sizes representing the full electronics manufacturing value chain. View full report.

For more information on IPC’s industry intelligence program including new reports, visit: www.ipc.org/advocacy/industry-intelligence.

IPC announced today the November 2022 findings from its North American Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Statistical Program. The book-to-bill ratio stands at 1.00.

Total North American PCB shipments in November 2022 were up 26.1 percent compared to the same month last year. Compared to the preceding month, November shipments rose 13.1 percent.

PCB year-to-date bookings in November were down 4.1 percent compared to last year. November bookings were up 0.1 percent compared to the same month last year.

“Shipment volume continues to recover while order volume remains muted, continuing a theme that has played out much of the year,” said Shawn DuBravac, IPC’s chief economist. “Shipments are up 11.4 percent year-to-date, while orders are down 4.1 percent.”

Detailed Data Available

Companies that participate in IPC’s North American PCB Statistical Program have access to detailed findings on rigid PCB and flexible circuit sales and orders, including separate rigid and flex book-to-bill ratios, growth trends by product types and company size tiers, demand for prototypes, sales growth to military and medical markets, and other timely data.

Interpreting the Data

The book-to-bill ratios are calculated by dividing the value of orders booked over the past three months by the value of sales billed during the same period from companies in IPC’s survey sample. A ratio of more than 1.00 suggests that current demand is ahead of supply, which is a positive indicator for sales growth over the next three to twelve months. A ratio of less than 1.00 indicates the reverse.

Year-on-year and year-to-date growth rates provide the most meaningful view of industry growth. Month-to-month comparisons should be made with caution as they reflect seasonal effects and short-term volatility. Because bookings tend to be more volatile than shipments, changes in the book-to-bill ratios from month to month might not be significant unless a trend of more than three consecutive months is apparent. It is also important to consider changes in both bookings and shipments to understand what is driving changes in the book-to-bill ratio.

IPC’s monthly PCB industry statistics are based on data provided by a representative sample of both rigid PCB and flexible circuit manufacturers selling in the USA and Canada. IPC publishes the PCB book-to-bill ratio by the end of each month.

IPC announced today the November 2022 findings from its North American Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) Statistical Program. The book-to-bill ratio stands at 1.38.

Total North American EMS shipments in November 2022 were down 0.6 percent compared to the same month last year. Compared to the preceding month, October shipments decreased 8.8 percent.

EMS bookings in October decreased 9.1 percent year-over-year and decreased 6.6 percent from the previous month.

“The industry recorded a decline in orders for the second consecutive month, but shipments were also subdued, keeping the book-to-bill elevated,” said Shawn DuBravac, IPC’s chief economist. “Shipments are roughly 15 percent below what we would expect given recent order volume, likely a sign of continued supply chain challenges.”

Detailed Data Available

Companies that participate in IPC’s North American EMS Statistical Program have access to detailed findings on EMS sales growth by type of production and company size tier, order growth and backlogs by company size tier, vertical market growth, the EMS book-to-bill ratio, 3-month and 12-month sales outlooks, and other timely data.

Interpreting the Data

The book-to-bill ratios are calculated by dividing the value of orders booked over the past three months by the value of sales billed during the same period from companies in IPC’s survey sample. A ratio of more than 1.00 suggests that current demand is ahead of supply, which is a positive indicator for sales growth over the next three to twelve months. A ratio of less than 1.00 indicates the reverse.

Year-on-year and year-to-date growth rates provide the most meaningful view of industry growth. Month-to-month comparisons should be made with caution as they reflect seasonal effects and short-term volatility. Because bookings tend to be more volatile than shipments, changes in the book-to-bill ratios from month to month might not be significant unless a trend of more than three consecutive months is apparent. It is also important to consider changes in both bookings and shipments to understand what is driving changes in the book-to-bill ratio.

IPC’s monthly EMS industry statistics are based on data provided by a representative sample of assembly equipment manufacturers selling in the USA and Canada. IPC publishes the EMS book-to-bill ratio by the end of each month.