According to IPC’s September 2022 economic outlook report, the economic picture in the United States continues to dim and the likelihood of a recession next year continues to increase. The U.S. economy is expected to expand just 1.6 percent in 2022, less than half as fast as the 3.9 percent growth projected at the start of the year. Next year, the economy is slated to expand just 0.6 percent, down from an expected 2.6 percent growth. A recession in the United States next year is not a foregone conclusion, but the probability has increased.

The picture in Europe is decidedly dimmer. The Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to put tremendous pressure on the global economy, but the impact is especially pronounced in Europe. Europe reported annual inflation of 9.1 percent in August, another new high for the continent. Moreover, pressures continue to mount and Europe will see a few more months of new inflationary highs.

“Right now, all eyes are on inflation,” said Shawn DuBravac IPC chief economist and report author. “Whereas inflation has likely peaked in the U.S., that is not the case in Europe, and likelihood of a recession in Europe next year is high. When the prospect for growth is limited, it does not take much to push an economy into recession.”

In addition to DuBravac's observations, the report also provides U.S. and European data on economic growth, employment, consumer sentiment, manufacturers’ sentiment (PMI), manufacturing capacity utilization and end markets for electronics.

View full September 2022 report. To view other industry intelligence information, visit https://www.ipc.org/advocacy/industry-intelligence.

IPC announced today the August 2022 findings from its North American Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Statistical Program. The book-to-bill ratio stands at 0.98.

Total North American PCB shipments in August 2022 were up 15.1 percent compared to the same month last year. Compared to the preceding month, August shipments rose 7.5 percent.

PCB year-to-date bookings in August were down 7.7 percent compared to last year. Bookings in August increased 12.7 percent from the previous month.

“The PCB sector's book-to-bill ratio remains unchanged this month, but the underlying data suggests some marginal improvements,” said Shawn DuBravac, IPC’s chief economist. “Shipment strength improved notably this month, consistent with easing supply chain constraints. Order flow was less negative this month, suggesting a small uptick in demand compared to earlier this year.”

Detailed Data Available

Companies that participate in IPC’s North American PCB Statistical Program have access to detailed findings on rigid PCB and flexible circuit sales and orders, including separate rigid and flex book-to-bill ratios, growth trends by product types and company size tiers, demand for prototypes, sales growth to military and medical markets, and other timely data.

Interpreting the Data

The book-to-bill ratios are calculated by dividing the value of orders booked over the past three months by the value of sales billed during the same period from companies in IPC’s survey sample. A ratio of more than 1.00 suggests that current demand is ahead of supply, which is a positive indicator for sales growth over the next three to twelve months. A ratio of less than 1.00 indicates the reverse.

Year-on-year and year-to-date growth rates provide the most meaningful view of industry growth. Month-to-month comparisons should be made with caution as they reflect seasonal effects and short-term volatility. Because bookings tend to be more volatile than shipments, changes in the book-to-bill ratios from month to month might not be significant unless a trend of more than three consecutive months is apparent. It is also important to consider changes in both bookings and shipments to understand what is driving changes in the book-to-bill ratio.

IPC’s monthly PCB industry statistics are based on data provided by a representative sample of both rigid PCB and flexible circuit manufacturers selling in the USA and Canada. IPC publishes the PCB book-to-bill ratio by the end of each month.

IPC announced today the August 2022 findings from its North American Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) Statistical Program. The book-to-bill ratio stands at 1.31.

Total North American EMS shipments in August 2022 were up 14.9 percent compared to the same month last year. Compared to the preceding month, August shipments increased 9.5 percent.

EMS bookings in August decreased 14.1 percent year-over-year and decreased 8.2 percent from the previous month.

“We continue to see order strength diminish, in line with a slowing economy and slowing demand for durable goods. At the same time, supply chain constraints, while still pronounced, appear to be easing somewhat and as a result shipment throughput has improved,” said Shawn DuBravac, IPC’s chief economist.

Detailed Data Available

Companies that participate in IPC’s North American EMS Statistical Program have access to detailed findings on EMS sales growth by type of production and company size tier, order growth and backlogs by company size tier, vertical market growth, the EMS book-to-bill ratio, 3-month and 12-month sales outlooks, and other timely data.

Interpreting the Data

The book-to-bill ratios are calculated by dividing the value of orders booked over the past three months by the value of sales billed during the same period from companies in IPC’s survey sample. A ratio of more than 1.00 suggests that current demand is ahead of supply, which is a positive indicator for sales growth over the next three to twelve months. A ratio of less than 1.00 indicates the reverse.

Year-on-year and year-to-date growth rates provide the most meaningful view of industry growth. Month-to-month comparisons should be made with caution as they reflect seasonal effects and short-term volatility. Because bookings tend to be more volatile than shipments, changes in the book-to-bill ratios from month to month might not be significant unless a trend of more than three consecutive months is apparent. It is also important to consider changes in both bookings and shipments to understand what is driving changes in the book-to-bill ratio.

IPC’s monthly EMS industry statistics are based on data provided by a representative sample of assembly equipment manufacturers selling in the USA and Canada. IPC publishes the EMS book-to-bill ratio by the end of each month.